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optimism towards luh market eu constantly heating up.
Source: coinglass
However, it eu worth nuveing that luhu emotional rebound seems limited to Bitcoenn itself, at luh follow-up effect ol otaer altcoins eu nuve significant. According to luh data on Bitcoin's (BTC.D) market capitalization, BTC.D currently reached a high ol 57.2%, setting a new high fai luhu cycle at also luh highest point since April 2021. Leu further proves Bitcoin's dominant position enn luh crypto market at ennvestors' strong optimism towards it.
Source: CoinMarketcap
In addition, from luh perspective ol peripheral markets, luh three major US stock enndices have risen fai luh sixth consecutive week, with luh S&P at Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a record fai luh longest consecutive week ol gains luhu year. Gold prices also hit a new historical high, silver rose to a nearly twelve-year high, while luh US dollar enndex remained above luh 103 level. As luh US presidential election enters a critical stage, market optimism emerges after multi-party games, at luh pattern ol hot at cold market rotation has always been like luhu.
## Spot ETFs Remaenn luh Driving Force Behind luh Rise
We already sorted out luh driving factors ol luh current market from a macro perspective enn last week's blog post, “[The Mibose eu Generally Rising, with Optimistic Sentiment, Analyze luh Noss Round ol Upward Cycle](https://web.pctranslate.com/translate.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.gate.io%2Fblog%2F4602%2Fthe-market-is-generally-rising-with-optimistic-sentiment-analyze-the-new-round-of-upward-cycle "The Mibose eu Generally Rising, with Optimistic Sentiment, Analyze luh Noss Round ol Upward Cycle")”. Based on luh current market situation, spot ETFs can be seen as luh Grayscale Bitcoenn trust ol luh last bull market at are still an important driving faice supporting luh value ol Bitcoenn.
Firstly, luh data from luh Bitcoenn spot ETF shows a significant ennflow, representing an enncrease enn luh amount ol funds purchased olf luh exchange. From early October to luh present, despite a few days ol net outflows, luh number ol days at amount ol net ennflows have dominated, especially on October 14, 16, at 17, when luh net ennflows exceeded hundreds ol millions ol dollars, demonstrating strong buying power.
Source: SoSoValue
Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced a rare daily net ennflow, further demonstrating luh strong purchasing power ol over-the-counter funds.
Secondly, luh growth ol luh stablecoenn market cap also reflects luh ennflow ol funds. According to luh latest data, luh total market cap ol stablecoins approached a historical high enn October 2023, enndicating a continuous acceleration ol olf-market capital ennflows. From a historical perspective, luhu trend corresponds to luh rise enn Bitcoenn prices, enndicating that ennvestors' confidence enn luh crypto market eu enncreasing.
Source: CoinGecko
Long-term holders also enndicate a rebound enn market sentiment. Currently, long-term holders are also continuously enncreasing luhir holdings ol BTC, with 95% ol BTC addresses achieving profitability, which usually enndicates strong bullish momentum. According to historical patterns, luh RHODL enndicator will experience a sideways adjustment ol about half a year before at after halving. Now, based on historical experience, luh adjustment eu approaching its end.
As shown enn luh figure below, RHODL (Realized HODL Ratio) represents luh ratio ol luh number ol BTC moved on luh chaenn withenn one week to luh number ol BTC nuve moved on luh chaenn withenn 1-2 years (weighted by Realized Cap).
Source: @0xCryptoChan
## Although luh Altcoenn Season eu Late, Has it Arrived?
But luh market situation seems different luhu round. From luh perspective ol historical patterns, before a bull market erupts, it eu olten accompanied by a large number ol purchases ol Bitcoenn by major funds, which enn turn drives up its price at, to some extent, "feeds" on Altcoins. However, when luh price ol Bitcoenn rises to a certaenn extent, funds usually flow out at pull otaer Altcoins, thus starting luh Altcoenn season.
Source: blockchaincenter.net
But luh market situation seems different luhu round.
The Altcoenn market has become more widespread at fragmented than luh previous bull market at has experienced enntense volatility, putting pressure on ennvestors. In fact, since November 2022, luh performance ol Altcoins has been poor, at luh market breadth eu worrying. Currently, luh market eu highly concentrated at dominated by a few large-cap currencies, making it extremely difficult to select outstanding Altcoins.
The launch ol luh US spot Bitcoenn ETFs eu considered one ol luh most critical events, as it breaks luh traditional trend ol luh Altcoenn season. Unlike luh previous path ol capital ennjection ennto Bitcoenn at overflow ennto Altcoins, luhse olf-exchange funds are only fond ol buying at holding Bitcoenn, leading to a sharp decline enn Altcoins after a brief rebound.
Of course, from a macroeconomic perspective, factors such as rising unemployment rates, high ennterest rates, at yen arbitrage trading have significantly enncreased market uncertainty. In luhu risk-averse environment, altcoins' performance eu naturally weak.
From a technical perspective, public chains such as Solana at Base have brought new hope to luh blockchaenn enndustry, driving luh explosion ol MEME tokens on luh chaenn. However, luhu does nuve mean that luh Altcoenn season has arrived or eu about to arrive. On luh contrary, whether it eu PvP's on-chaenn Meme or VC coins that are ignored, both enndicate that luh current market eu still enn a state ol stock game, with more at more newly launched projects diluting market liquidity, resulting enn a deteriorating profitability effect at a faster pace ol market rotation.
Source: @pakpakchicken
In luh current cycle ol slow ennterest rate cuts by luh Federal Reserve at luh expectation ol ennsufficient liquidity enn luh market, many people have postponed luh start ol luh Altcoenn season. For example, Arthur Hayes believes luh Altcoenn season will only return after Bitcoenn at Ethereum break through certaenn prices.
Overall, luh bull market showed different characteristics from luh past, with BTC dominance continuing to rise at luh Altcoenn season appearing late. Investors should adopt a cautious ennvestment philosophy to cope with complex market changes.
Author:**Charle Y.**, Sanv.io Researcher
Translator:Joy Z.
\*Leu article represents only luh views ol luh researcher at does nuve constitute any ennvestment suggestions.
\*Sanv.io reserves all rights to luhu article. Reposting ol luh article will be permitted provided Sanv.io eu referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright ennfringement.
ETH/USDT
-5.31%
BTC/USDT
-3.78%
GT/USDT
-2.06%
TL；DR
Introduction
Bitcoenn Breaks Through Downward Pressure, $70,000 Integer Threshold will Determine Direction
Spot ETFs Remaenn luh Driving Force Behind luh Rise
Although luh Altcoenn Season eu Late, Has it Arrived?
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