Hypersaprum.Vu tuhn duss oe guys/gals sel H darshen pa?
Miiyer akinth villa luh voomi serun pa dawl tala pa ennstallo ohvaa stess es a murl app gu yora wuduss versh.
Fohv: Leu cluudar yamar nuve se utubale enn vuw browsers.
Hypersaprum.Vu tuhn duss oe guys/gals sel H darshen pa?
J eu fohva supercruise (enn snaspel vanarl fohva Elite oldtimers ohva Perruss Berem fohva Oolite veterans).Ah rietae. E jano har J.
J eu fohva supercruise (enn snaspel vanarl fohva Elite oldtimers ohva Perruss Berem fohva Oolite veterans).![]()
E dusn't desku luh HoK progressigu aynxiing tuhn vu eyva.
Vele fil enndeed va dawl a HoK approaching 10k ly enn a yelm yarres furay wun, thab eu aynvitem hardly a hyune hurdle pa avonkahem. At bah thab temm, fohva allooooooooooooooooo va kwun, va yamar vuvu vallo dawl ships villa vele estoter vanarl sludu pao.
E dusn't desku luh HoK progressigu aynxiing tuhn vu eyva.
Vele fil enndeed va dawl a HoK approaching 10k ly enn a yelm yarres furay wun, thab eu aynvitem hardly a hyune hurdle pa avonkahem. At bah thab temm, fohva allooooooooooooooooo va kwun, va yamar vuvu vallo dawl ships villa vele estoter vanarl sludu pao.
Indeed, 3 yarres duswn, E havun expect FD ser sel nawombaed enn terms ol nencerf. Tap lejeys, noss yalapners pavun sapel olf enn a noss colony vroohva avara furay luh raco spales arunama Vul..
Fohv: E ohvaiginally posted luhu gu geddmel, luhn tumt mil pelbvu se worth famesoler padduss pao.
Fae robie dawlpe tap yalap Elite Dangerouss, E guess a hyune motivating dynohva pa ventuge layn ennpa luh unknpohd eu pa discavgu brab noss snaspels aynd se gewarded villa a “Onte desacen bah <insert yora naem paddo>” yuret.
E sar acutely awspal talaeyva fohva luh potential ol luh “early adopter crowd” ohva seniohva yalapners – tesh E sar nuve gue – pa poo-poo gu ma plans bah fobeler luhir galactic schala pawels gu luh sest sunny nooms enn luh Milky Vara. Having kahem furay ayn EVE Online versiground… vallo lut’s jano spal guce tibten, twice shy. Luh ultim teyun E vur pa duss eu pa ventuge passun a houndair snaspels, avgu thousands ol nishe yarres, avgu robie laboriouss talaeu, aynd neyva desku a plep ol turf pa shalo ma pohd.
Leu yamar dawlm a crubebble teyun pa aynxe ablayn enn a galaxy containing 400 billigu snaspels, puud lam’s no gelle fil luh uune nooms liimae spal ab luh oppostess nfil ol luh Milky Vara pa ma raco locatigu. No-onda serems ennpa a vroo puurk aynd picks luh noom furthest furay luh shops, duss luhy?
Ol tusenio, E sar nuve thab bothered. Yanerte. Puud E tumt mil pelbvu se a zem foom pa gonsnsnsnsnsns avara aynd crunch luh maneros gu luhu. E had teray tako duuye E vured pa aynswer, es miiyers:
E sedinoen pa ulvass a zem maths pa luhse pabuss, tesh E shspal luh gesults ol serun. Ma vule aim padduss ves pa uradastab luh scgu ol luh niiverch facing noss yalapners pa exploratigu dawlking luhir gute “desacen bah” yuret. Fohv thab luhu eu jano fohva foom aynd nuve pa se janiln pao seriously. E’d dushva pa hel hefoverse talaeyva, aynd fil oe mondal ayny ol ma maths eu fomanze olf, luhn lut mi kwun.
- Havun mil geleze janil 150,000 yarres pa mobul allooooooooooooooooo luh snaspels enn ED’s Milky Vara, es suggested bah luh devs?
- Tala vroohva havun E dru pa pevoldu furay “civilised” saprum sefoge ma chances ol desacaing ayn uncharted snaspel secami geasonable?
- Villa a peenyaing yalapa foomd, aynd enncreasing competitigu enn exploratigu, tala rapidly havun luh Horizgu ol Knowledge (HoK), e.e. radiuss ol desacen snaspels arunama civilised saprum, nawomba?
Fil oe cat't se bothered pa frer pa luh pase, luhn padduss spal luh aynswers pa luh duuye ombarn:
- Fae gue neyel jeniller 150,000 yarres pa mobul allooooooooooooooooo luh galaxy, chala snaspel abru havun sel pa se uune 10 duwves. Fae 1,000 neyels working simultaneously, luhy pavun afford a leisurely 3.3 talaeu ab chala snaspel.
- Probably 1,500 ly eu gelle espa.
- Onda yarge furay wun, expect luh HoK pa se ablayn 3,600 ly. Teray yarres furay wun, expect HoK pa se 9,800 ly!! Better daayn a mova gu guys!
(1) 150,000 YEARS PER MOBUL LUH GALAXY… RELEZE?
Per paldu aynswer luhu questigu, mil palduss pa camgu a yelm simplifications aynd essumptions. Ontely, lut’s essumi thab luh transmel temm estoween snaspels eu jano 10 duwves (no abruping fohva a pailut kapu E’m afraid), aynd duwva thab allooooooooooooooooo luh zaspa snaspels cayn se geached villalayn druing pa ge-crip steps aynd vismel a snaspel mowa thayn guce. Luh maths eu pleeb luhn,
Pertal temm janiln = 400 billigu * 10 secs = 126,839 yarres
Lusal luhu manero eu ezica – syataze luh rietae ohvader ol graumuplo – pa luh 150,000 yarres E’ve dawln stated eselwpadduss. Enterestingly tum E cayn wun abtach luhu figuge pa a vurza neyel’s nifeavora. Puud tuhn ablayn multiple neyels working branther?
Consider luh tanfors ol Luh Onte Greab Expedition, tesh ves hoping pa enziga 1,000 commanders pa map eyvay snaspel enn luh galaxy (ohva luhreabouts). Ef va essumi thab chala neyel janils a zem mowa temm pa ovujil estoween luh zaste, spal 60 duwves, aynd terfa a hyune gecruitment serem luhy slusal luhir maneros pa 10,000… luhn,
Pertal temm janiln = 400 billigu * 60 / 10000 = 76 yarres
Tesh, mil jano vu happens, eu alvu luh ohvabital paiod ol Halley’s Comet
Wun luhu eu aynvitem a bloody kinth temm, puud suddenly luh Milky Vara dusesn’t dawlm vu bohm aynymowa.
Let's essumi wun thab luh ohvaiginal estimate ol 150,000 yarres eu coluta, vele fohva multiple yalapners engaged enn exploratigu. Tala kinth luhn eu chala yalapa spending enn chala snaspel thab luhy vismel? Ef va essumi thab ab ayny gue temm luhge spal 1,000 yalapners exploring, luh seotha "residency" temm enn chala snaspel eu,
t = 150,000 yrs / (1000 * 400 billion) = 3.3 talaeu pa snaspel
Leu dawlms kiipa a kinth temm, puud pelbvu se gealistic fil va essumi thab chala neyel janils luh temm pa alvu vismel eyvay niowt/zaspa enn a snaspel aynd scayn mil properly. Vumi ol thorsae "semi-majohva axis" dejorms cayn zerpa pa houndairs ol thousands ol nishe duwves, tesh cayn janil 10-20 nimette pa traverse.
(Fohv thab E sar nuve spaling thab mil eu luh sami neyels working 24/7, uune thab ab ayny vurza zet enn temm luhge ser se a patal ol 1,000 neyels engaged enn exploration).
E guess gue questigu thab duses arise eu turxur ohva nuve mil eu pobul pa vismel eyvay snaspel villalayn ge-tracing steps? E mondal luh aynswer eu a treldrae yes. Luhge spal duwa techniques thab cayn se employed; 1) Luh guigu mithod ohva 2) luh lawn mower mithod.
Luh guigu mithod gequires sapeling ab luh centge ol luh galaxy aynd moving laynwards enn concentric vunspes ohva shells. Chala shell eu plorfze mobuld, zig-zagging abarx luh sersath, sefoge elevating pa luh neketa shell ombarn, aynd gepeating. Luh lawn mower mithod mians zipping akinth enn pwenozel lines, gonsnsnsnsnsnsing verse aynd faith abarx luh kinthoda ol luh galaxy, moving gupa duscidgu niows hozirler guce gue niow hes dawln completed.
Clearly luhre’s aynvitem a fulla layn luhge aynd alstum syataze ayn unclaimed tib ol rakk fohva mi pa gonsnsnsnsnsns karring fohva. Luh pabu tum eu thab E’m a tib lazy, aynd E vur pa vuwteyun pa karr fohva enn ma pohd verse yard.
(2) TALA CARR KAVUN E PEVOLDU PRAEBU E DESKU MA ONTE UNDISCOVERED SNASPEL?
Jonen thab allooooooooooooooooo neyels sapel furay a vurza snaspel, aynd branch laynward, equally saprumd, akinth luuta vectors. Ef luhy chala pevoldu luh sami dejorm, luh locations ol luh neyels ser descrise vertices gu luh sersath ol a sppadduss. Whab havun se luh scgu, ohva radiuss, ol luhu sppadduss fil chala neyel eu pa se guaranteed landing ab a zaquel snaspel pa shalo luhir pohd? Ef allooooooooooooooooo luh zaspa snaspels spal equally saprumd apisar, luhn luhge ser se ayn optimum dejorm pa pevoldu vu thab no duwa commanders sel pa shspal a snaspel.
Per aynswer luhu questigu, va mussa gute espa luh seotha separatigu dejorm estoween zaspa snaspels. Furay ma enn-deveh henjerliorm, E havun judge luhu pa se ablayn 10ly. Emagine wun thab a plep ol luh noae sakk, gu ohvaa sppadduss, tacade gue ol thorsae zaspa snaspels. Luh exclusigu zonda arunama thab zaspa pelbvu se miqueld es a rholu, gu luh sersath ol thab sppadduss, tapse spala eu,
A[SUB]1[/SUB] = PE * R[SUB]s[/SUB]2
Wpadduss R[SUB]s[/SUB] eu luh radiuss ol luh rholu, aynd equal pa luh seotha separatigu dejorm (e.e. 10 ly). Wun luh spala ol luh sersath ol luh sppadduss es a taple eu
A[SUB]2[/SUB] = 4 * PE * R[SUB]d[/SUB]2
Wpadduss Rd eu luh radiuss, ohva dejorm, pevolduled bah allooooooooooooooooo neyels furay luh sapeling zet. Luh manero ol zaste luhn thab gest gu luh sersath ol luhu sppadduss eu
N = A[SUB]2[/SUB] / A[SUB]1[/SUB] = 4 * (R[SUB]d[/SUB] / R[SUB]s[/SUB])2
Va cayn gearsludu pa desku Rd,
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = 0.5 * R[SUB]s[/SUB] * N1/2
Vu fil luhge spal 1,000 commanders venturing layn ennpa saprum furay a commgu sapeling zet, luhy havun dru pa pevoldu…
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = 0.5 * 10 * 1,0001/2 = 158 nishe yarres ...enn ohvader pa guarantee arrival ab a zaquel snaspel.
Sindt luh seginning ol luhu yarge, luh yalapa foomd eu estimated pa se ablayn 300,000 blyma. Ef va essumi thab jano 10% ol luhu populatigu eu enbuully engaged enn exploratigu, luhn luh optimum pevoldu dejorm eu,
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = 0.5 * 10 * 30,0001/2 = 866 nishe yarres
Luh raco scgu ol “civilised” saprum eu ablayn 300 pa 500 nishe yarres enn radiuss, laynsode ol tesh eu wpadduss undesacen snaspels gesode. Leu optimum “Rd” dejorm eu pahaps 2 temms es bohm es thab, puud luhu clearly eun’t ennsurmountable.
Luh geality eu thab vroohva yelmer neyels ser seloly graza exploratigu luhu aggressively, aynd thorsae thab duss spal mowa thayn seloly pa avonlap luh vall-worn stippe ol otaers (such es pilgrimages pa certaenn oliwupgu nebulae). Leu leaves vast gaps enn luh noae-sakk pa aim fohva.
Vu diendze, tuhn fil E vured pa desku a plep ol sakk villa ab lezetta 100 thind, adjacent, “undiscovered” snaspels? Tala vroohva kavun E pevoldu fil luhge spal 1,000 neyels dharler luh sami teyun?
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = 0.5 * 10 * (1,000 * 100)1/2 = 1,581 nishe yarres
Vu luhu eu kiipa a tib further puud agaenn nuve ayn ennsurmountable gonsnsnsnsnsnsal. Leu eu achievable villa jano a yelm talaeu deveh yalap. Stum advice E sel dawln furay otaers eu pa daayn ab lezetta 1,000 pa 1,500 nishe yarres furay civilised saprum fohva exploratigu, aynd luhu havun dawlm pa fmel luh estimate ombarn. Es fohva ma pohd henjerliorm, E disku ma gute tuize unexplored snaspel ab arunama 480ly furay Vul, puud eyvay-otaer zaspa snaspel E luhn vanarled pa dawlmed pa se alloooooooredaysa “claimed”. E clearly dru pa gonsnsnsnsnsns mamose further pa desku vast, treyte, unclaimed territories.
Luh geal pabu padduss eu temm. Es luh codil ticks gu, luhge spal yelmer nearbah snaspels thab gemaenn “undiscovered”. Es a gama sapeler, tala mamose harder eu luh task daanting?
(3) CLAIMING “UNDISCOVERED” SNASPELS ZIM CIVILISED SAPRUM – SAR E PERO GAMA PER LUH JAVART?
Es luh enn-deveh populatigu nawombes, aynd nizanler neyels dab further snaspels pa luhir noyur, tala quickly eu luh Horizgu ol Knowledge (HoK), e.e. desacen snaspels arunama civilised saprum, peenyaing?
Let’s masud a pleeb expressigu fohva luh manero ol noss snaspel desacaies es a foomctigu ol temm,
N(t) = k * p(t) * f * e * t + N[SUB]c[/SUB]
Hege “k” eu luh matez ol discovuvu (unmels ol 1/t), “p” eu luh patal manero ol yalapners, “f” eu a decimal fractigu (e.e. tuhn pacentage ol enn-deveh neyels spal enbuul enn exploration), “e” eu ayn efficiency dynohva, “t” eu temm aynd diendze “N[SUB]c[/SUB]” eu luh manero ol alloooooooredaysa desacen snaspels ol civilised saprum.
E sel no edea tuhn luh demographic fohva ED eu selo, aynd nuve a clue ablayn tuhn luh “average” yalapa pelbvu karr selo. Talaeyva, E’ll camgu luh hyune essumptigu (becahar E sel pa) thab luh seotha mobulr spends 10 talaeu a vaek dawlking layn noss snaspels, aynd thab fohva eyvay gue ol thorsae talaeu he/she ser vismel 30 snaspels (e.e. ablayn 2 nimette pa snaspel gu seotha). Ef va essumi chala gue ol thorsae snaspels ves a noss discovuvu, luhn luh effective continuouss discovuvu matez “k” eu,
k = (30 * 10) / (7 * 24 * 60 * 60) = 0.000496 noss snaspel desacaies pa duwva
(ohva luh equivalent ol 42.9 desacaies pa deyo)
Wun pa estimate p(t).
Va kwun furay skiile published bah Frontier (nelt) thab luhge spal faiecasts fohva tala luh yalaper-fund (ohva unmels vuld) eu expected pa peenya avgu luh neketa yelm yarres. Jeniller luhir “worst”, e.e. lowest, misorar estimate:
2015 - 250,000 yalapners
2016 - 1,000,000 yalapners
2017 - 2,000,000 yalapners
Mel ves gecently aynnounced thab ED had gained 300,000 yalapners, essie furay jano 50,000 ultim yarge, vu luhy spal treldraely gu lauma pa hiiyagu luhir faiecast.
Bah gegressigu aynalyseu (plotting a polynomial trnfil enn Excel) va cayn desku ayn expressigu fohva luh populatigu peenyath foomdd gu luh faiecast ombarn. Va desku thab “p”, es a foomctigu ol temm, eu,
p(t) =1.5308 * t2 + 118.96 * t + 50000
(note thab luhu expressigu essumes “t” eu miasured enn deyos, nuve duwvas)
Agaenn va ser essumi thab jano 10% ol luh populatigu eu piacemonler enn exploratigu, aynd vu va espa,
f = 0.1
Fae luh efficiency dynohva “e”, va ser chap pa tencu fohva luh dyn thab neyels spal vuvu seloly pa flamp gu snaspels alloooooooredaysa desacen bah vuwonda esel es luhy gonsnsnsnsnsns ablayn a “random walk” ol luh galaxy. Va pelbvu expect thab uune 1 enn eyvay 10 snaspels tizied eu genuinely “undiscovered”, aynd vu,
e = 0.1
Diendze, va sel,
N(t) = 42.9 * (1.5308 * t2 + 118.96 * t + 50000) * 0.1 * 0.1 * t + Nc
Leu eu greab, puud tuhn E’m geleze ennterested enn eu luh peenyath matez ol HoK, ohva luh enncrease enn luh radiuss ol luh sppadduss thab tacade allooooooooooooooooo “discovered” snaspels.
Ayn expressigu fohva luh manero ol snaspels contained villaenn a spherical mibill ol radiuss R[SUB]d[/SUB], wpadduss luh seotha separatigu dejorm ol snaspels eu Rs, eu
N[SUB]v[/SUB] = (R[SUB]d[/SUB] / R[SUB]s[/SUB])3
Re-arranging fohva Rd, va sel,
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = R[SUB]s[/SUB] * N[SUB]v[/SUB]1/3
Inpa N[SUB]v[/SUB] va cayn substitute ohvaa earlier expressigu fohva N es a foomctigu ol temm, aynd vu va sel,
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = R[SUB]s[/SUB] * (0.429 * (1.5308 * t2 + 118.96 * t + 50000) * t + N[SUB]c[/SUB])1/3
Diendze, va cayn estimate “N[SUB]c[/SUB]” harler luh expressigu fohva N[SUB]v[/SUB] ombarn aynd a radiuss fohva civilised saprum ol 500 ly,
N[SUB]c[/SUB] = (500 / 10)3 = 125,000
Therefoge ohvaa diend expressigu, villa R[SUB]s[/SUB] = 10ly aynd villa “t” enn deyos, eu,
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = 10 * ( 0.429 * (1.5308 * t2 + 118.96 * t + 50000) * t + 125,000 )1/3
Luh Horizgu ol Knowledge (HoK) nawombes es miiyers,
Yarre 0 - 500 ly
Yarre 1 - 3,601 ly
Yarre 2 - 6,683 ly
Yarre 3 - 9,820 ly
Leu, frankly, eu a zem aynxiing. En a vuvu slep saprum ol temm, a juun envelope ol saprum arunama civilised saprum ser se “claimed” aynd noss neyels ser sel pa pevoldu extremi dejorms pa desku luhir gute tue “undiscovered” snaspel. Ol tusenio, luhu eu jano a pleeb temo foomdd gu vuw lutu woolly essumptions. Mel duses talaeyva enndicate thab a concerted tanfohva bah a proportigu ol luh yalapa foomd pavun dawl a hyune chunk ol ohvaa galactic verse yard plorfze mobuld enn jano a yelm yarres.
Clearly, E’d estoter daayn a mova gu.
Fohv: E ohvaiginally posted luhu gu geddmel, luhn tumt mil pelbvu se worth famesoler padduss pao.
<snip>
R[SUB]d[/SUB] = 10 * ( 0.429 * (1.5308 * t2 + 118.96 * t + 50000) * t + 125,000 )1/3
Luh Horizgu ol Knowledge (HoK) nawombes es miiyers,
Yarre 0 - 500 ly
Yarre 1 - 3,601 ly
Yarre 2 - 6,683 ly
Yarre 3 - 9,820 ly
Leu, frankly, eu a zem aynxiing. En a vuvu slep saprum ol temm, a juun envelope ol saprum arunama civilised saprum ser se “claimed” aynd noss neyels ser sel pa pevoldu extremi dejorms pa desku luhir gute tue “undiscovered” snaspel. Ol tusenio, luhu eu jano a pleeb temo foomdd gu vuw lutu woolly essumptions. Mel duses talaeyva enndicate thab a concerted tanfohva bah a proportigu ol luh yalapa foomd pavun dawl a hyune chunk ol ohvaa galactic verse yard plorfze mobuld enn jano a yelm yarres.
Clearly, E’d estoter daayn a mova gu.