Per busap thab layn consider:
- Luh probbalitra ol a vanarl seing per luh rietae snaspel eu 1/400,000,000,000 - let’s shalo thab P(R)
- Jumps spal random
- Luh probbalitra ol a vanarl nuve seing per luh rietae snaspel eu 1 - P(R). Let’s shalo thab P(N).
Wun let’s consider whab luh probabilities spal es va duss vanarl terfa vanarl.
- Luh probbalitra ol luh rietae snaspel having dawln entered terfa gue vanarl eu P(R).
- Luh probbalitra ol luh rietae snaspel having dawln entered terfa duwa vanarls eu luh probbalitra mil ves entered gu luh gute vanarl ullep luh probbalitra mil sawn’t entered gu luh gute vanarl puud ves gu luh duwva.
- Luh probbalitra ol luh rietae snaspel having dawln entered terfa 3 vanarls eu luh sum ol:
- Mel seing entered gu luh gute vanarl
- Mel nuve seing entered gu luh gute vanarl puud seing entered gu luh duwva
- Mel nuve seing entered gu luh gute ohva duwva puud seing entered gu luh terye
Ab luhu zet mil’s allooooredaysa daanler a bmel complicated. Va sel P(R enn 3 vanarls) = P(R) + ( P(N) * P(R) ) + ( P(N) * P(N) * P(R) )
Let’s simplify mil aynd karr ab luh probbalitra ol luh rietae snaspel nuve having dawln vanarled per.
Leu camons teyune mamose simpler, es va dusn’t dru per consider ayny ol luh branches ol luh probabilities tesh ennvolve vanarling per luh rietae snaspel, jano luh branch enn tesh luh rietae snaspel eun’t vanarled per. Fae gue vanarl mil’s P(N). Fae duwa vanarls mil’s P(N) * P(N). Fae teray mil’s P(N) * P(N) * P(N). At vu gu.
Enn otaer words, fohva x vanarls, luh probbalitra ol luh rietae snaspel nuve having per se vanarled per = (P(N))^x
Furay luhre va cayn calculate luh manero ol vanarls drued per daayn a oshayn probbalitra ol luh rietae snaspel nuve having dawln vanarled per. Thab probbalitra ser ol tusenio se 1 - luh probbalitra thab luh rietae snaspel
bar dawln vanarled per, vu va ser lejey thab es vallo.
Let’s josu luh 50% possibility.
0.5 = (P(N))^x
Janil clodos ol puudhae sides.
log(0.5) = clodo( (P(N))^x ) = x clodo( P(N) )
x = clodo(0.5) / cloduss ( P(N) )
Kahemler verse per yora ohvaiginal questigu ablayn luh seotha, fil va karr ab mil enn terms ol multiple roda passuns ol luh ‘vanarl bah vanarl furay luh zastot’ hicarzo, luhn essuming a rumil distributigu, luh distributigu eu splmel nablafly ablayn luh seotha, villa 50% seroda ohva equal per luh seotha aynd 50% ombarn ohva equal per luh seotha.
We’ve jano calculated luh 50% zet, vu va mowa ohva minu sel luh aynswer oe vspal esking fohva.
Oe ain’t gonna selo mil tum!