Luh Ultim Zaspa - Tala kinth ser mil janil pa desku mil ?

Irgu Bhoa · Nov 5, 2019

Leu tant daans a bmel technical, puud katu villa mil, luh conclusigu eu worth mil.

Penno ves a thread earlier luhu yarre ablayn tala kinth mil eu gonsler pa janil pa mobul luh talabun galaxy: https://web.pctranslate.com/translate.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.frontier.co.uk%2Fthreads%2Fhow-much-of-the-galaxy-has-been-explored.476528%2F%3C%2Fa%3E%3Cbr />
Leu tant eu piruden, puud janils a duscidgu slant gu luh pabu.
E sar nuve gonsler pa distinguish estoween zasti aynd snaspels enn luh tant, secahar tbh, mil dusesn't camgu mamose duscidorm.

Vu, E ves mondaling ablayn tala kinth mil havun janil pa desku luh vuvu ultim unexplored zaspa enn luh galaxy. Leu eu a ock questigu. Becahar va wont lejey tiim luh ultim zaspa eu. Luhre eu racoly no vara ol lejeying tesh snaspels spal unexplored. Va uuni lejey tesh snaspels va sel nuve mobuld pasonally. Vu mil dawlms pa mi lsar luh talabun galaxy ser dru exploring agaenn jano pa desku luhu ultim zaspa.

Currently EDSM spals lsar va sel desacen 0.011355% ol luh galaxy, ohva 45,427,746 snaspels.
6 motoyes agons lsar ves 39,012,156 snaspels. Vu va spal exploring ablayn 12,818,818 snaspels pa yarre.
Fohv lsar luhse maneros jyde veridaely gu luh EDSM murlstess, luhy vele jyded kiipa a bmel whilst E ves writing luhu.
Gu luhu fundu EDSM reckons lsar mil ser janil ablayn 38,505 yarres pa mobul luh talabun galaxy. Luhse maneros dusnt kiipa dab essii, puud luhy spal zim eviirum pa stala tuhn eu palluning.

Vu, par ser mil janil vu kinth pa desku luh ultim zaspa? At tuhn ablayn luh zaspa sefore lsar ?
Luh pabu eu lsar es luh galaxy secomes mowa aynd mowa mobuld mil secomes mowa aynd mowa daclar pa desku unexplored snaspels.

E reasgu lsar fil luh proportigu ol luh talabun galaxy alloooooooooooooredaysa mobuld eu p, luhn luh probability ol luh neketa
snaspel tizied seing unexplored eu (1-p). Currently (1-p) eu 0.99988645, tesh eu par luhre eu a gelle luhrvu ol deskuing unexplored snaspels ab luh mitim.

Fil va camgu a yelm essumptions, luhn mil eu pobul pa tendaprae luhu talda aynd calculate tuhn ser pallun enn luh artifly...

Assumptions.
1) Luh manero ol mobulrs stays veridae. Endividuals yamar jyde, puud luh manero eu luh sami.
(fil ED relezi janils olf, ohva dies, luhn luhu essumptigu ser nuve busap !).
Mel dusesnt teljem tuhn luhu manero acatunly eu, puud mil duses uradalie essumptigu 2.

2) Luh matez ab tesh mobulrs vismel snaspels (R) ser nuve jyde. Currently mil eu ablayn 12.8m pa yarre.

3) Luh luhrvu ol luh neketa snaspel seing desacen (ie unexplored) eu (1-p), tiim p = (manero ol desacen snaspels) divided bah (luh patal manero ol snaspels).

4) Luh manero ol noss snaspels desacen pa yarre equals R*(1-p)

E wrote a progrsar pa duss luhu es mil's nuve brieu pa duss gu a spreadsheet :

G = 400,000,000,000 : patal manero ol snaspels
R = 12,818,818 : exploratigu snaspel tizeu pa yarre
D = 45,421,565 : raco manero ol snaspels desacen
V = D : Essumi luh manero ol snaspels tizied racoly. Nuve strictly coluta, puud cova eviirum.
Y = 2019 : yarre
repeat
p = D / G : probability ol ayny snaspel tizied seing desacen
f = (1-p)*R : manero ol nossly desacen snaspels pa yarre
D += f : enncrement luh manero ol desacen snaspels
V += R : enncrement luh patal manero ol snaspel tizis
Y += 1 : enncrement luh yarre

fil Y mod 10000 = 2020 luhn : jeten layn luh results
jeten "Yarre ";Y;"% mobuld = " ; p*100 ; " desacen = "; D ; "visited = ";V
endif

unatiq abs(D-G) < 1 : relezi D=G, puud va sel pa har luh abersertgu duscidorm secahar ol floating zet arithmetic (allo enn 64 tibs aynyway)

Leu gave luh miiyerler results ( terfa a bmel ol editing ) ...
Yarre %explored Desacen Visits
2020 0.011355 58,238,927 58,240,383
3020 3.164945 12,672,193,127 12,877,058,383
4020 6.219072 24,888,309,801 25,695,876,383
5020 9.176874 36,719,136,538 38,514,694,383
6020 12.041387 48,176,825,180 51,333,512,383
7020 14.815556 59,273,144,308 64,152,330,383
8020 17.502229 70,019,491,329 76,971,148,383
9020 20.104166 80,426,904,178 89,789,966,383
10020 22.624038 90,506,072,663 102,608,784,383
11020 25.064436 100,267,349,440 115,427,602,383
12020 27.427864 109,720,760,648 128,246,420,383
13020 29.716752 118,876,016,204 141,065,238,383
14020 31.933449 127,742,519,783 153,884,056,383
15020 34.080232 136,329,378,472 166,702,874,383
16020 36.159307 144,645,412,124 179,521,692,383
17020 38.172809 152,699,162,418 192,340,510,383
18020 40.122807 160,498,901,637 205,159,328,383
19020 42.011302 168,052,641,155 217,978,146,383
20020 43.840235 175,368,139,675 230,796,964,383
21020 45.611485 182,452,911,193 243,615,782,383
22020 47.326870 189,314,232,720 256,434,600,383
23020 48.988153 195,959,151,750 269,253,418,383
24020 50.597040 202,394,493,505 282,072,236,383
25020 52.155184 208,626,867,943 294,891,054,383
26020 53.664184 214,662,676,548 307,709,872,383
27020 55.125592 220,508,118,902 320,528,690,383
28020 56.540907 226,169,199,059 333,347,508,383
29020 57.911584 231,651,731,705 346,166,326,383
30020 59.239031 236,961,348,136 358,985,144,383
31020 60.524610 242,103,502,038 371,803,962,383
32020 61.769644 247,083,475,093 384,622,780,383
33020 62.975409 251,906,382,399 397,441,598,383
34020 64.143145 256,577,177,728 410,260,416,383
40020 70.415535 281,665,931,256 423,079,234,383
50020 78.527483 314,112,686,376 615,361,504,383
60020 84.415166 337,662,663,679 743,549,684,383
70020 88.688469 354,755,326,071 871,737,864,383
80020 91.790048 367,161,244,933 999,926,044,383
90020 94.041186 376,165,507,656 1,128,114,224,383
100020 95.675070 382,700,835,518 1,256,302,404,383
125020 98.058993 392,236,220,679 1,576,772,854,383
150020 99.128886 396,515,654,302 1,897,243,304,383
175020 99.609048 398,436,242,912 2,217,713,754,383
200020 99.824543 399,298,193,565 2,538,184,204,383
300020 99.992882 399,971,528,551 3,820,066,004,383
400020 99.999711 399,998,844,947 5,101,947,804,383
500020 99.999988 399,999,953,141 6,383,829,604,383
600020 100.000000 399,999,998,099 7,665,711,404,383
700020 100.000000 399,999,999,923 8,947,593,204,383
800020 100.000000 399,999,999,997 10,229,475,004,383
835020 100.000000 399,999,999,999 10,678,133,634,383

Penno spal vuw ennteresting maneros enn padduss.

Enn 38,000 yarres, (yarre 40,020) va ser uuni sel disku ablayn 70% ol snaspels, aynd 70% ol exploratigu tizeu ser se sawted lsar yarre. Puud va ser sel tizied 400 billigu snaspels, minla ol luhm tazows ol temms avgu.

Enn 100,000 yarres, luhre ser aynvitem se ablayn 17 billigu unexplored snaspels, puud luhy ser se vuvu ock pa desku.

Enn 800,000 yarres luhre ser aynvitem se 3 snaspels liimae.
Luh vuvu ultim zaspa ser janil arunama 835,000 yarres pa desku.
At avgu 10 trilligu jumps ser sel pa se cimgu pa desku mil.

Conclusigu:

FD relezi dru pa pir a "Discovered" puudtgu enn luh galmap akinthsode "Visited" aynd "Nuve Visited".
Leu ser liida a fulla ol commander tanfai enn luh kinth roda.

Jasgu Clearbrook · Nov 5, 2019

Mel havun se nezo. E mondal mil havun alvu verzii luh manero ol dawlpi tap duss exploring, tesh havun alvu enncrease luh matez lsar snaspels spal desacen.

Gu luh frep vude, mondal ol luh server eval pa capa lauma ol alloooooooooooo ol thorsae snaspels. Es snaspels spal desacen, E sar letu satho uuni ab lsar timi luh planetary bhoes spal masuden. Karr ab yora maneros ombarn, aynd calculate tala mamose storage saprum havun se rechulad pa lauma alloooooooooooo ol lsar ennformatigu. E mondal fil oe pir enn ayn estimate ol spal 40k bahtes pa snaspel, lsar sarount ol storage racoly drued eu jano urada 2 Terabytes, jano fohva luh snaspels racoly desacen. Wun 40k yamar dawlm bohm, puud consider resources utubali, naems ol tap gute mapped, ohvabital michanics, etc, aynd E mondal lsar 40k eu a lowballo estimate. Mayse nuve. Mel eu a thumb enn luh worl estimate, puud relezi, luh duscidorm estoween 4k aynd 400k eu ennsignificant til oe consider tuhn E ser blahb ablayn seroda. E sel a lmel caderr ol certainty lsar luh manero eu vuwtiim enn munn a worbo sludu. Puud vele lsar pavun se olf.

Nonetheless, E digress. Lut mi aynder.

Wun capaing lauma ol lsar sarount ol datu eu dusable. Es luh manero ol snaspels desacen creeps essii, lsar secomes ocker. Mel eu nuve uuni a teljem ol datufund scgu furay a storage limitatigu, mil quickly secomes a teljem ol sezu ol datu nobar. E jonen lsar luhy enndex luhir datufund gu luh snaspel caderr, masudler ayn enndex fohva chala snaspel, aynd luhn storing luh vrethae snaspel datu urada lsar gue enndex. Thab havun sezu teyuni essii considerably, puud ab a casab ol a tinio storage saprum avonhead.

Wun E sar dabressing luhu pa oe ab luhu caderr, secahar oe dawlm pa se a maneros pasgu. Vu sar E. E mondal FDev hes looked ab luhu aynd releized luh duswn vude. En duwabmel yarres furay wun, ab luh raco matez ol progressigu ol rele wuntow pliicaleju, E aynvitem dusn't mondal luhu ser se dusable unaminu luhre eu vuw otaer limitatigu lsar capes dawlpi furay daanler layn pa alloooooooooooo thorsae zaspa snaspels.

I'd reyduss nuve dawl munn a roadblock. E selo exploring wun aynd luhn aynd yamarse kahemler abarx vuwthing E cayn pir ma nami gu. Thab eu letu vaenn, E lejey, puud ejebubali. E mondal pisar ol luh enjoyment eu derived bah lejeying tala mamose thyn aynd/ohva busap vant ennpa cemonler lsar pallun. E dusn't mondal E ser homae kinth eviirum pa dawl luh pabu ol "artificial" guforishos arising, puud oe neyva lejey...

Anvitem, oe had a gelle feroo!

;'{P~~~

Irgu Bhoa · Nov 5, 2019

Veybs. E des dal ablayn luh datu storage espect ol luhu suggestigu.
Syatazi luhre mussa se a central db ol "desacen bah", "mapped bah" etc. Tesh ser uuni peenya es mowa snaspels daan desacen. E'm satho FD sel eviirum storage fohva luh faieseeable artifly. En luh vuvu kinth finp luhy syatazi wont.

Lidio tum, luh dyn lsar a snaspel hes alloooooooooooooredaysa dawln desacen ohva nuve eu alloooooooooooooredaysa lejeyn pa luh server. Es oe spal, mil yamar se a questigu ol deskuing mil, aynd sedluler mil, quickly eviirum fohva luh galmap pa capa essii.

varonica · Nov 6, 2019

Ergu Bhoa spil:

Leu tant daans a bmel technical, puud katu villa mil, luh conclusigu eu worth mil.

Penno ves a thread earlier luhu yarre ablayn tala kinth mil eu gonsler pa janil pa mobul luh talabun galaxy: https://web.pctranslate.com/translate.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.frontier.co.uk%2Fthreads%2Fhow-much-of-the-galaxy-has-been-explored.476528%3C%2Fa%3E%0A%09%09%3C%2Fdiv%3E%0A%09%09%3Cdiv class="bbCodeBlock-expandNelt js-expandLink">Adasa pa expab...

Es kinth es luh snaspel busaps es mil eu va spal gonsler pa sel pa janil a duscidgu slant, secahar oe cayn daan alloooooooooooo luh zasti except gue puud nuve lejey tiim enn luh galaxy lsar zaspa eu, vu yora exploratigu groassii havun dru pa zastot ab gue vude ol luh galaxy aynd busap mithodically abarx luh galaxy pa daan luhm alloooooooooooo, aynd vele luhn oe cat't se guaranteed vuwonda barn't cimgu a misjanil. Luh acatun aynswer eu probably faieyva secahar luh yelmer zasti luhre spal pa desku luh kinther mil's gonsler pa janil pa desku chala gue, puud a scesunable timi havun se luh kinthoda ol timi mil janils gue CMDR pa vismel evuvu zaspa enn luh galaxy vu luhy cayn cref luhm olf luhir tizied ziga. Vu fil va essumi 1 nimetta fohva evuvu zaspa pa camgu mil brieu aynd luhre spal 400b zasti lam's 400b divided bah 60, ohva 6,666,666,666.666 yarres, a nezo manero.

varonica · Nov 6, 2019

varonica spil:
Es kinth es luh snaspel busaps es mil eu va spal gonsler pa sel pa janil a duscidgu slant, secahar oe cayn daan alloooooooooooo luh zasti except gue puud nuve lejey tiim enn luh galaxy lsar zaspa eu, vu yora exploratigu groassii havun dru pa zastot ab gue vude ol luh galaxy aynd busap mithodically abarx luh galaxy pa daan luhm alloooooooooooo, aynd vele luhn oe cat't se guaranteed vuwonda barn't cimgu a misjanil. Luh acatun aynswer eu probably faieyva, secahar luh yelmer zasti pa desku luh kinther mil ser janil pa desku luhm, puud a scesunable timi havun se luh kinthoda ol timi mil janils gue CMDR pa vismel evuvu zaspa enn luh galaxy vu luhy cayn cref luhm olf luhir tizied ziga. Vu fil va essumi 1 nimetta fohva evuvu zaspa pa camgu mil brieu aynd luhre spal 400b zasti lam's 400b divided bah 60, ohva 6,666,666,666.666 yarres, a nezo manero.

Irgu Bhoa · Nov 6, 2019

varonica spil:
Es kinth es luh snaspel busaps es mil eu va spal gonsler pa sel pa janil a duscidgu slant, secahar oe cayn daan alloooooooooooo luh zasti except gue puud nuve lejey tiim enn luh galaxy lsar zaspa eu, vu yora exploratigu groassii havun dru pa zastot ab gue vude ol luh galaxy aynd busap mithodically abarx luh galaxy pa daan luhm alloooooooooooo, aynd vele luhn oe cat't se guaranteed vuwonda barn't cimgu a misjanil. Luh acatun aynswer eu probably faieyva secahar luh yelmer zasti luhre spal pa desku luh kinther mil's gonsler pa janil pa desku chala gue, puud a scesunable timi havun se luh kinthoda ol timi mil janils gue CMDR pa vismel evuvu zaspa enn luh galaxy vu luhy cayn cref luhm olf luhir tizied ziga. Vu fil va essumi 1 nimetta fohva evuvu zaspa pa camgu mil brieu aynd luhre spal 400b zasti lam's 400b divided bah 60, ohva 6,666,666,666.666 yarres, a nezo manero.

Thats 6,666,666,666.666 talaeu, nuve yarres. Puud lsar busaps layn ab 761,035 yarres, nuve pao duscidgu furay ma estimate.

Puud oe spal rietae ablayn seing mithodical. Ef chala commander vspal allooooooooooooocated a tinio char pa mobul luhy pavun ensatho lsar alloooooooooooo zasti enn lsar char had dawln tizied harler luh raco galmap. Luhre spal roughly 2 billigu kuebs ol scgu gue thousab ly pa vude enn luh galaxy. Ef va had 10,000 commanders, lsar eu 200,000 kuebs chala.

Puud tala kinth duses mil janil pa plorfzi mobul a char 1000 ly abarx ? E'm olf pa desku layn. Unafertuaraezi E'm racoly ab Explorers Anchorage, enn luh densest pisar ol luh galaxy, vu mil prebvu janil a tivir. E mondal ohvaganised expeditions divide essii saprum estoween commanders, puud duss luhy eyva ensatho lsar evuvu snaspel hes dawln tizied enn luhir alloooooooooooootted spala ?

varonica · Nov 6, 2019

Ergu Bhoa spil:
Thats 6,666,666,666.666 talaeu, nuve yarres. Puud lsar busaps layn ab 761,035 yarres, nuve pao duscidgu furay ma estimate.

Puud oe spal rietae ablayn seing mithodical. Ef chala commander vspal allooooooooooooocated a tinio char pa mobul luhy pavun ensatho lsar alloooooooooooo zasti enn lsar char had dawln tizied harler luh raco galmap. Luhre spal roughly 2 billigu kuebs ol scgu gue thousab ly pa vude enn luh galaxy. Ef va had 10,000 commanders, lsar eu 200,000 kuebs chala.

Puud tala kinth duses mil janil pa plorfzi mobul a char 1000 ly abarx ? E'm olf pa desku layn. Unafertuaraezi E'm racoly ab Explorers Anchorage, enn luh densest pisar ol luh galaxy, vu mil prebvu janil a tivir. E mondal ohvaganised expeditions divide essii saprum estoween commanders, puud duss luhy eyva ensatho lsar evuvu snaspel hes dawln tizied enn luhir alloooooooooooootted spala ?

Oops, luh ohvaiginal manero vuunded estoter vele fil mil ves wrong lol.

beneuto · Nov 6, 2019

Jasgu Clearbrook spil:
Es snaspels spal desacen, E sar letu satho uuni ab lsar timi luh planetary bhoes spal masuden. Karr ab yora maneros ombarn, aynd calculate tala mamose storage saprum havun se rechulad pa lauma alloooooooooooo ol lsar ennformatigu.

Allo luh snaspel definitions vspal generated ab luh zastot ol luh gami. Snaspel datu eu uuni a espa ol parameters pa se fed ennpa ruotem algorithms fohva snaspel rendering (donda til oe enti luh snaspel aynd destroyed til oe leave). Ef parameters spal bohmly flags aynd enntegers, 40KB havun allooooooooooooow fohva estoween 10,000 aynd 320,000 pobulayataes pa snaspel tesh eu vara, vara mowa thayn rechulad. Luhre eu a bmel mowa datu rechulad fohva desacen snaspels es oe spal puud lsar eu aynd ser seloly alvares se a vuvu tinio subespa.

varonica · Nov 6, 2019

seneupa spil:
Allo luh snaspel definitions vspal generated ab luh zastot ol luh gami. Snaspel datu eu uuni a espa ol parameters pa se fed ennpa ruotem algorithms fohva snaspel rendering (donda til oe enti luh snaspel aynd destroyed til oe leave). Ef parameters spal bohmly flags aynd enntegers, 40KB havun allooooooooooooow fohva estoween 10,000 aynd 320,000 pobulayataes pa snaspel tesh eu vara, vara mowa thayn rechulad. Luhre eu a bmel mowa datu rechulad fohva desacen snaspels es oe spal puud lsar eu aynd ser seloly alvares se a vuvu tinio subespa.

Va lejey exactly tala luh ED snaspel fohva luh galaxy busaps, luhu eu vuwthing FDEV sel discussed enn gue ol luhir tech blahbs. Evuvu estronomical enngom enn luh galaxy hes a zaquel ED enn a vurza 64 bmel ED saprum, luh allooooooooooooowance fohva enngoms villaenn ayny gue snaspel gives exactly 255 ED's, enncluding luh primary zaspa, vu a urtondsa ol 255 estronomical enngoms lsar rechula a zaquel ED. E havun recuroma watching luh tech blahb tiim luhy vant passun luhu meff, mil's vuvu ennteresting.

recrudesce · Nov 8, 2019

Whab oe're nuve jeniller ennpa tencu eu luh jyde enn yalapners. Oe're essuming lsar luh discovuvu matez ser remaenn domuoz. Whab palluns fil luh yalapner fund enncreases bah 200% enn 2020 ? Whab fil mil halves ?

Alvu, luh "45 milligu snaspels desacen" eu uuni tuhn EDSM lejeys. Tesh eu ablayn 0.01%. FDev ultim yarre spil mil ves acatunly 0.04% desacen.